Probability-Weighted Expected Capital Destruction · Total: ~$397B
3%
34%
63%
Soft Landing: $12B EV
Managed Correction: $135B EV
Cascade: $250B EV
02
Live Baseline — July 22, 2026
🟡
Oracle 5yr CDS
203 bps
18-yr high · Jul 21, 2026
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Oracle Stock
$127
$366B market cap
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OpenAI ARR
$25B
Flat since Feb 2026
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Anthropic ARR
$47B
~2× OpenAI · 35–40% enterprise
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Oracle Credit
BBB−
S&P stable · Moody's Baa2 neg
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CoreWeave Debt
$30B
Junk-rated B+/Ba3/BB−
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Oracle 5yr Default Prob
15.6%
Market-implied · CDS-derived
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Capex / Revenue
3.7×
Sustainable threshold: <2.0×
Oracle FCF FY2026
−$23.7B
Est. −$42B in FY2027
Oracle RPO
$638B
47% = OpenAI contracts
Total AI Infra Commitments
$1.2–1.5T
Off-balance-sheet SPV complex
Construction Loan (Refi 2029)
$38B
JPM + MUFG · Refi cliff 2029–30
OpenAI Cash (Est.)
~$40B
Burning ~$2B/month
Oracle FY2026 Revenue
$67.4B
FY2027 target: $80–85B
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Monthly Timeline · Jul 2026 — 2030
👆 Click any month to see scenario signals for that period
04
OpenAI Revenue Gap Calculator
Assumptions
OpenAI ARR Growth Rate (YoY)40%
Oracle Annual Obligation (2028)$45B
Total Infrastructure Costs (2028)$170B
Available Cash (2027 start)$40B
Cash Exhaustion Estimate
—
Adjust sliders to calculate
Year-by-Year Coverage Analysis
Year
OpenAI Rev
Oracle Obligation
Total Costs
Annual Deficit
Revenue Coverage
Bar
Status
05
The Domino Chain — Cascade Path
Click any node to expand details. Status reflects current July 2026 conditions. Colors: ■ healthy · ■ stressed · ■ triggered · ■ future risk
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Investor Exposure Map
Hover over any institution to see their specific exposure and risk profile
07
17 Falsifiable Predictions Tracker
08
Interactive Decision Tree
09
Historical Parallel — Telecom vs. AI Infrastructure
📡 Telecom Overbuild 2000–2003
🤖 AI Infrastructure 2026–2030
Key Difference: Telecom peak-to-major-bankruptcy: ~18–24 months (2000 peak → Jan 2002 Global Crossing). AI has a longer fuse — hyperscalers are cash-generative. Correction will be slower but potentially larger in absolute dollar terms. Key Similarity: 24 of 30 largest telecom companies went bankrupt by 2003. If Oracle (the "Global Crossing" of AI) fails, it takes Stargate, Vantage Data Centers, and the construction loan syndicate with it. But data centers (unlike fiber) will be absorbed by surviving hyperscalers at distressed prices.
10
Capex Supercycle — The Overcapacity Gap
Hyperscaler Capex vs. AI Infrastructure Revenue
Current 3.7× ratioSustainable: <2.0×
~45% of current capex is building ahead of demand — creating ~$300B/year in "speculative" infrastructure