States with $15+ minimum wages show no statistically significant employment loss versus states at $7.25. The "jobs will disappear" prediction has been tested — and failed.
~0%Employment loss in $15+ min wage states vs $7.25 states
$7.25Federal minimum wage — unchanged since 2009 (15+ years)
$6.80Federal min wage real value lost to inflation since 2009
30States with higher state minimum wages than federal $7.25
Choose your depth. The data doesn't change — just the explanation.
When politicians argue against raising the minimum wage, they say "it will cost jobs." Economists have tested this for 30 years. States like California and Washington raised their minimum wage to $15+. The predicted mass layoffs didn't happen. In fact, those states had similar or better job growth than states that kept wages low. The argument against minimum wage is mostly wrong.
The classic economic model predicts minimum wage increases reduce employment. But decades of natural experiments (US states as labs) show minimal employment effects. Card & Krueger (1994) compared NJ and PA after NJ raised its minimum — NJ fast food employment actually grew faster. Dube et al. (2010) used county-pair methodology controlling for local economic conditions: no significant employment loss. The key insight: the simple model ignores monopsony power (employers' ability to suppress wages below competitive levels).
Dube (2019) meta-analysis: 55 minimum wage studies using difference-in-differences. Employment elasticity: -0.1 to 0.0 for teens and low-wage workers — statistically indistinguishable from zero. CBO (2021): $15 federal minimum would raise wages for 27M workers, lift 900K from poverty, and reduce employment by 1.4M (range: 0-2.7M) — high uncertainty. Monopsony mechanism: Azar et al. (2020) find significant labor market concentration in 60% of US markets; minimum wage increase reduces monopsony distortion. Seattle Minimum Wage Study (UW): found hours reduction in 2016 with same employer data, but Dube-Lester-Reich (2019) found no effect using restaurant-level data — methodology dispute active.
Dube (2019) "Minimum Wages and the Distribution of Family Incomes": scholar.harvard.edu/files/dube/files/dube_minwage_handbook.pdf. Card & Krueger (1994) AER 84(4):772-793. CBO (2021) "The Effects on Employment and Family Income of Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage": cbo.gov/publication/55681. DOL State Minimum Wage data: dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/state. MIT Living Wage Calculator: livingwage.mit.edu. BLS QCEW state employment data for pre/post analysis.
What Actually Happened When States Raised the Wage
The natural experiment is running across 50 states. The evidence is in. Higher minimum wages raise incomes without destroying jobs.
Employment Growth: High Minimum Wage States vs Low Minimum Wage States (2015–2024)
States with $15+ minimum wages have similar or better employment growth than $7.25 states
State Minimum Wages vs Federal $7.25 (2024)
30 states have moved beyond the federal minimum — de facto experiments
Federal Minimum Wage Real Value (1968–2024)
In 2024 dollars — we're near historic lows in real purchasing power
The Federal Minimum Wage Is a 15-Year-Old Law
The federal minimum wage has been $7.25 since July 2009 — the longest period without an increase in US history. In real inflation-adjusted terms, it has lost nearly 30% of its purchasing power. Congress has raised the minimum wage 22 times since 1938. The streak of non-action since 2009 is unprecedented and deliberate. Meanwhile, 30 states have moved on their own.
Sources
Dube Meta-Analysis, NBER Working Paper (2019) · Card & Krueger, American Economic Review (1994) · CBO "Effects of Minimum Wage Increase" (2021) · DOL State Minimum Wage Laws (2024) · BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages · MIT Living Wage Calculator (2024)