The Heliaia · Solonic’s calibration panel
Lend us your judgment. Keep the record.
Solon’s reform was opening appeal to the Heliaia — the citizen court: judgment by the many, on the record. Ours is a standing panel of researchers who get the research feed and, if they choose, sit as jurors — eliciting credences, adjudicating ground truth, anchoring the checks we cannot run on ourselves. You calibrate our instruments; the record you build is yours.
The deal, both columns
What moves in each direction
You get
- The feed: one message when a claim changes status — a proof lands, a conjecture turns, an erratum files. Ledger, Atlas, and errata in one stream. No other mail.
- A calibration record: every judgment you give is scored by a proper rule when the claim resolves. Pseudonymous by default, public if you choose, exportable always. Credentials by track record, not by institution.
- Named credit when your review anchors a published verdict — the external validator line on the artifact itself.
We get
- Elicited credences for Atlas nodes that currently, honestly, have none.
- Ground-truth panels for measuring our own verifier’s error rate — the number this site admits it does not yet have.
- External anchors for self-verified artifacts. A verification chain that only checks itself converges on confidence, not correctness; you are how the loop is closed from outside.
The sittings
What a juror actually does
Short, structured judgments — “how likely is this claim to hold?” — on problems in your domains. Minutes, not hours; routed by the expertise you declare below.
Adjudicate a claim the verifier also judged, so its agreement rate with experts becomes a measured number instead of a promise.
Attack an artifact we produced — a corpus entry, a verdict, a page of this site — before it ships. You are the check we cannot be for ourselves.
When a forecastable claim resolves, panel judgments are scored against the outcome. That is where the calibration record comes from.
First docket · open now
- All twenty gap-fill Atlas entries now carry recorded gate checks with evidence — but the checks are self-application. The docket is the independent re-review before publication. Read them raw →
- Credence elicitation pilot: fifty Atlas nodes, the first measured beliefs on a map that currently records none. The map →
- A ground-truth panel for the verifier’s own error rate — the measurement behind the number this site refuses to assert until it exists. The gates →
- The independent re-gate of the superintelligence probability map — until it runs, our own flagship’s Mark stands PROVISIONAL. The record →
- The illusion study: a pre-registered test of whether confidence outruns counterfactual command as explanations simplify — run on our own four-depths page, materials and power analysis published before any data. The pre-registration →
- Documents-channel confirmation sittings: under law P2, no connection edge over the public Epstein releases publishes on one automated extraction — every edge needs a second family or a human juror. The channel and its laws →
On gaming the score. Campbell’s law sits in our own Atlas tagged “directly self-applicable”: any measure used for decisions gets corrupted. Our defense is the oldest one — proper scoring rules, under which the profitable strategy is reporting what you actually believe. And the panel’s value is independence, not size: correlated jurors do not add up, so we recruit for disagreement and publish the correlation we find. We would rather seat a heterodox dozen than a homogeneous hundred.
Join
Take a seat
Status of the scoring pipeline. OPEN — the Heliaia is assembling its first cohort. The elicitation and scoring protocol is drafted and published in the methods. Applications are open — take a seat above to join. When the first cohort resolves, this paragraph gets replaced by the numbers.